That’s it for this week.
Welcome to Foreign Policy’s South Asia Brief. This week, we take a look at how devastating flash floods have hit Afghanistan the hardest, the looming political turmoil in Manipur, and the increased competition between India, Pakistan, and China for regional dominance.
To start with Afghanistan, flash flooding in the wake of heavy seasonal rains killed at least 31 people, leaving 74 injured, and 41 more missing. It destroyed more than 600 homes and acres of agricultural land, making it the latest calamity to hit Afghanistan this season. Preceding this, the Taliban reported that natural disasters have taken over 200 lives in the past four months alone.
Poverty levels are high in the country, coinciding with its vulnerability to climate change. Afghanistan experiences regular floods and droughts; researchers in the UK marked it as one of the areas most risk-prone to heat waves. These natural disasters affected thousands of people last year, more so the war-torn or climate-stricken. To make matters worse due to the Takeover, international financial assistance beyond humanitarian support has dramatically dropped, leaving $800 million in suspended environmental projects meant for its benefit. Women have been prevented from working with non-governmental organisations since last December, meaning a lack of technical experts. Much of the Taliban’s authority is held by officials who can’t effectively address the challenge of climate change further deepening the crisis caused by it. In an attempt to combat this, the U.N. Climate Change Conference held a meeting to create a fund for vulnerable countries like Afghanistan, yet sanctions prevent it from accessing those funds.
This brings us to the current uproar in Manipur, sustained ethnic violence in the Indian state led to over 130 casualties with thousands displaced and a chilling video of two women being assaulted by a mob. Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s condemnation of the incident surfaced the day after, police intervention in the state has been demanded. But nothing concrete has been done to resolve the situation as Modi has rarely commented on any type of domestic violence with the BJP party ruling the region oppositioned by a no-confidence vote hoping to pressure the Prime Minister into speaking about the issue in Parliament.
U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s phone conversation with Pakistani Minister Bilawal Bhutto Zardari has been deemed as an indirect reference to the crackdown happening in the region with the Biden administration not getting directly involved, avoiding the same situation as last April when former Prime Minister Imran Khan accused the United States of helping in his no-confidence defeat. There is a possibility of the Prime Minister position being occupied by the finance minister, but this is still within speculation.
Sri Lankan President was in India last week with New Delhi having warm relations and providing economic aid during its economic crisis. China’s competition in this region is quite noticeable with it rolling out a ‘Silk Roadster’ initiative in Nepal which is expected to be duplicated in other countries. The initiative is expected to target people-to-people engagement for a better relation with the country after India and the U.S. made investments in the region.
To conclude, what is prominent in the situation in South Asia is how the international community sees it fit to contribute more to help climate mitigation and adaptation efforts in Afghanistan, through the strengthening of climate resilience throughout the global south. It is also in how the countries in the region have to curiously balance their relations between India, China and the United States, all at once, in order to prevent any mishaps. Although living conditions are already worsening due to climate change, the unfortunate interventions of outside governments add to the vulnerability of the region.